Research

• Research using Australian Real-Time Data
• Useful References
• Real-Time Research funded by ARC Discovery Grant DP0988112
• Research Events
• Other Databases

 

Research using Australian Real-Time Data

• Meta Taylor Rule for the UK and Australia: Accomodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods (648KB, 37 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Universoty of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1138, January 2012
• The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and An Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis(6,975KB, 42 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, University of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1132, July 2011. 
• Real-Time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves by Anthony Garratt, James Mitchell, Shaun P. Vahey and Elizabeth C. Wakerly, CAMA Working Paper 34/2010, the Australian National University, December 2010.
• Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia by Gordon de Brouwer and John Gilbert, Economic Record, volume 81, issue 253, pages 6-18, June 2005.
• Output Gaps in Real Time: How Reliable Are They? by David Gruen, Tim Robinson and Andrew Stone, Economic Record, volume 81, issue 252, pages 6-18, March 2005.
• The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data by Christopher Bajada, Australian Economic Review, volume 35, issue 3, pages 276-286, September 2002.
• The Nature and Extent of Revisions to Australian Macroeconomic Data by Robert D. Brooks, Gabrielle E. Berman and Sinclair R. Davidson, Applied Economics Letters, volume 5, issue 3, pages 169-174, March 1998.
• GDP Growth Rates Calculated from Quarterly National Accounts, Discrepancies and Revisions by Guay C. Lim, Australian Economic Review, issue 72, pages 21-28, November 1985.

 

Useful References

• Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis by Dean Croushore, Journal of Economic Literature, volume 49, issue 1, pages 72-100, March 2011.
• Real-Time Bibliography compiled by Dean Croushore (University of Richmond)
• Bibliography complied by Peter Rossiter (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

 

 

Real-Time Research Funded by ARC Discovery Grant DP0988112

• Meta Taylor Rule for the UK and Australia: Accomodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods (648KB, 37 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Universoty of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1138, January 2012
• Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available (476KB, 45 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, 2010.

• Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One? (545KB, 18 pages) by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Special Issue 22, pages 43-60, December 2010.

• The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and An Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis (6,975KB, 42 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, University of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1132, July 2011. 
• Australian Real-Time Database: A Users Manual (1,058KB, 213 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, August 2011.
• The Meta Taylor Rule (954KB, 31 pages) by Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Shields, University of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1131, July 2011.
• Measuring the Natural Output Gap using Actual and Expected Output Data (327KB, 36 pages) by Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper, University of Nottingham, March 2011.

 

Research Events

 

• 7th Annual CIRANO Workshop on Data Revision in Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy

  • Location and Date:Montreal, Canada; 7-8th, October 2011.
  • Paper Presented: The Meta Taylor Rule by Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Shields, July 2011.

• The Econometric Society Australasian Meeting in 2011 (ESAM11)
  • Location and Date: The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; July 4-7th, 2011.
  • Paper Presented: The Meta Taylor Rule by Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Shield, July 2011.

• Royal Economic Society Annual Conference

  • Location and Date: The Royal Holloway, London, UK; April 2011.
  • Paper Presented: Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data by Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper, University of Nottingham, March 2011.

• Bank of England Seminar

  • Location and Date: The Bank of England, London, UK; March 2011.
  • Paper Presented: Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data by Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper, University of Nottingham, March 2011.

• Australian Conference on Quantitative Macroeconomics

  • Location and Date: The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; December 19-20th, 2010.
  • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.
• Workshop on Forecasting and Decision-Making in Real-Time
  • Location and Date: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; November 25-26th, 2010.
  • Invited Speakers:

    Assoc. Prof. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, University of Groningen, Netherlands,

    Prof. Kevin Lee, University of Nottingham, UK,

    Prof. James Morley, University of New South Wales, Australia,

    Prof. Simon van Norden, HEC Montral (formerly known as: cole des Hautes tudes commerciales de Montral), Canada,

    Assoc. Prof. Kalvinder Shields, University of Melbourne, Australia

    Prof. Shaun P. Vahey, Australian National University, Australia.

  • Programme
• Conference on Real Time Data Analysis, Methods and Applications
  • Location and Date: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia/CIRANO, Philadelphia, US; October 18-19th, 2010.
  • Paper Presented: Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, volume 22, issue 1, pages 43-60, January 2011.
• Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group
  • Location and Date: Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus; September 2010.
  • Paper Presented: Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, volume 22, issue 1, pages 43-60, January 2011.
• Eurostat Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis
  • Location and Date: Luxembourg; September 2010.
  • Paper Presented: Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, volume 22, issue 1, pages 43-60, January 2011.
• 10th EABCN Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle
  • Location and Date: The European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany; March 2009.
  • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.
• Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group
  • Location and Date: Birkbeck College, London, UK; September 2008.
  • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.
• International Institute of Forecasters 28th International Symposium on Forecasting
  • Location and Date: Nice, France; June 2008.
  • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.

 

Other Databases

• Canada: Statistics Canada, Real-Time Data Analysis Tool (RTDAT)
• Euro Area: Euro Area Business Cycle Network, EABCN Real Time Database
• Euro Area: European Central Bank, Real Time Database
• Germany: Deutsche Bundesbank, Real-Time Data
• New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, A Real-Time Database for GDP
• OECD: Original Release Data and Revisions Database
• UK: Bank of England, Gross Domestic Product Real-Time Database
• UK: Office of National Statistics, GDP Revisions Triangles
• US: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Historical Materials
• US: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Previously Published Estimates
• US: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Real-Time Data Research Center
• US: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Archival Federal Reserve Economic Data (ALFRED)
• US: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research (FRASER)

 

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