Research Paper No. 738

Australian Economic Growth: Non-linearities and International Influences

by

OLAN T. HENRY & PETER M. SUMMERS
 
 

MARCH 2000

Department of Economics. University of Melbourne. Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia

  ABSTRACT

This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which fluctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.

 
 

Request For Full Working Papers
This mail form will be sent automatically to Department of Economics Administrative Staff and your request will be processed. Please fill in your Details below and Click On "Send Request" button when you are finished. Papers will be sent by post.

Please enter paper No :

Please enter paper title :

Please enter your name :

Please enter you postal address :

Please enter your e-mail address :