THE DISPLACEMENT HYPOTHESIS AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: SOME NEW LONG-RUN EVIDENCE
by
OLAN HENRY & NILSS OLEKALNS
JUNE 2000
Department of Economics. University of Melbourne. Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia
ABSTRACT
This paper presents new evidence on the ability of Peacock and Wiseman's displacement hypothesis to explain temporal increases in the ratio of government expenditure to GDP in the United Kingdom. Using univariate modelling techniques that are robust to structural changes in the underlying data generating process and a data set extending back to 1836, we find four instances where displacement may be said to have occurred.
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