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RESEARCH PAPER NO. 871
MODELLING THE BEHAVIOUR
AND PERFORMANCE OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL TIPSTERS
BY
MATTHEW AMOR & WILLIAM
GRIFFITHS
FEBRUARY 2003
Department of Economics. University of Melbourne. Melbourne Victoria 3010 Australia
The forecasting performance of newspaper
tipsters who predict the outcomes of English
soccer matches has recently been assessed
by Forrest and Simmons (2000). In
this paper we extend their work to forecasts
of AFL matches by five newspaper tipsters
in Melbourne, Australia. These tipsters
are assessed against some simple performance
criteria as well as against the forecasts
from a logit model designed to predict match
outcomes. We find that most tipsters
satisfy simple performance criteria. However,
they do not fully exploit publicly available
information and only two appear to successfully
use independent information relevant to
match outcomes.
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