Department of Economics. University of Melbourne. Parkville Victoria
3052 Australia
ABSTRACT
Time series data consisting of 671 observations of seawater temperature,
observed at irregular intervals off Maria Island, Hobart, Australia, over
a period of 50 years, are examined. The mean temperature exhibits an approximately
linear trend which is taken as evidence of global warming. No periodicity
other than the expected annual temperature cycle is apparent. A stochastic
model, based on Newtonian heating and consistent with these observations,
is proposed and fitted to the data. All parameters are returned with meaningful
statistical accuracy providing further support for the global warming view.
The model parameters also provide an estimate of mean daily temperature
which is in good agreement with regional climatic conditions.
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