Research Paper No. 543

Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Australia

by

Mark Crosby & Nilss Olekalns

December 1996

Department of Economics. University of Melbourne. Parkville Victoria 3052 Australia

ABSTRACT

In this paper we investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Australia, post 1959. We focus on two features of the data: firstly, we find that forecasting models are surprisingly stable through our sample period. We also estimate the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), focussing on both the level of the NAIRU, and the stability and precision of our estimates. We find that estimates of the NAIRU range from as low as 2.3% to as high as 9.5% in Australia over this period.
 
 

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