CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND OTHER MEASURES BASED ON GROSS FLOWS DATA FOR AUSTRALIAN FEMALES

by

Adam Cagliarini & Robert Dixon

Department of Economics. University of Melbourne. Parkville Victoria 3052 Australia

ABSTRACT

A Summary of the main features of the flows data for Australian females

Over the period 1980 to 1997:

• The probability that a female employed (whether full-time or part-time) in one month will be employed in the next month has been rising. Chart 1 p.5)
• The probability that a female employed full-time in one month will not be employed in full-time employment in the following month has been rising but the probability that a female employed part-time in one month will be employed in the following month has been rising. (Charts 3 & 4 p.6f)
• There has benn a rise in the probability that a female employed full-time in one month will be part-time employed next month and an increase since 1993 in the probability that a female employed part-time in one month will be employed on a full-time basis in the next month. (Charts 5 & 6 p7f)
• The conditional probablity that a female employed full-time in one month will be employed in the following month has been rising along with the probability of being employed part-time in one month and being employed the next month. (Charts 7&8 p.8f)
• The probability that a female employed in one month will be unemployed next month is now at the levels it was during the mide 1980's. (Chart 9 p.9)
• The conditional probability that a female employed in one month will be employed part-time in the next is as higher thatn the sum of the probabilities of being employed full time in onw month and either being unemployed or leaving the labour force int he next month. (Chart 10 p.10)
• The conditional probability of a female being employed on a part-time basis in one month will leave the labour force in teh next is now lower, and falling, than the probability that a female will unemployed in one month if she were part-time employed in the month before. In the early 1980's, a female employed part-time in one month was more likely to exit the labour forse than become unemployed. (Chart 11 p.10)
• The conditional probability that a female who is unemployed in one month will be employed part-time in the next month overtook the probability that she was employed full-time in the next month in 1982-83. An unemployed female in one month is now more twice as likely to gain part-time employment than full-time employment in the next. (Charts 13&14 p.11f)
• For most of the period, a female unemployed in one month is more likely to exit the labour force than find employment in the next month. The only exception to this was between 1989 and 1991 when these probabilities were roughly equal. (chart 16 p.13)
• There has been an increase in the propensity of females to enter the labour force (Chart 18 p.14)
• The probability that a female who is jobless (i.e. either not in the labour force or unemployed) in one month ill be employed on a ful-time basis in the next month has dropped by 35% over this period whilst the probability of finding part-time employment rose by about 33%. (Charts 20&21 p.15)
• The proportion of all flows into employment which originate from unemployment has risen but has remained below 35% over the entire period whilst the proportion of all flows into full-time employment originating from part-time employment has risen from about 50% in 1980 to approximately 75% in 1997. (Charts 22&23 p.16)
• There has been a rise in the proportion of flows into part-time employment originating from full-time employment. 50% of all flows into part-time employment for females originate from full-time employment. (Chart 24 p.17)
• During the 1991-92 recession, the proportion of all flows out of the labour force originating from unemployment increased by 50%. During the depths of the recession, 40% of the flows out of the labour force originated from unemployment compared to 36% during the 82-83 recession. (Chart 26 p.18)