Research Paper No. 649

THE AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS CYCLE: JOE PALOOKA OR DEAD CAT BOUNCE?

by

Philip M. Bodman & Mark Crosby

July 1998

Department of Economics. University of Melbourne. Parkville Victoria 3052 Australia

ABSTRACTS

We address the question of whether asymmetry in the business cycle and asymmetry in the persistence of negative versus positive shocks characteries Australian output growth. Using nonlinear time series models we provide evidence that suggests Australian output growth is characterised by three distinct phases: contractions, high growth recovery periods and "normal" or moderate growth periods. This implies that Australian output fluctuations have a significant transitory component and is supportive of the "output-gaps" view and "plucking" model view of economic fluctuations. In contrast to recent evidence for the US and Canada however, we find that Australian GDP growth does not exhibit important asymmetries in the responses of output growth to positive and negative shocks.
This mail form will be sent automatically to Department of Economics Administrative Staff and your request will be processed. Please fill in your Details below and Click On "Send Request" button when you are finished. Papers will be sent by post.

Please enter paper No :

Please enter paper title :

Please enter your name :

Please enter you postal address :

Please enter your e-mail address :