Don Harding

Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne. VIC 3010, Australia.
Ph: +61 3 8344 7027 (office) or +61 0403 753601 (Mobile). Fax: +61 3 8344 6899 (office).

email: d.harding@unimelb.edu.au

Business Cycles

My work on business cycles has three main themes,
  • Investigation of the methodological issues that arise in studying business cycle models.
  • Providing an econometric foundation for the procedures developed by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
  • Using the tools based on Burns and Mitchell's methodology to develop encompassing tests of econometric models  that claim to describe the business cycle. 

PhD. Thesis

Essays on the business cycle,  Yale, 2003. 
Committee Bill Brainard (Chair), Eduardo Engle, Adrian Pagan.

Publications

  1.  "Knowing the Cycle", with A.R. Pagan, in , Macroeconomics in the Real World,
    Backhouse R. and A Salanti eds, Oxford University Press, 2000, pp 23-41. Link to Oxford Site  (Zip file with Gauss Code for Knowing and Dissecting)
  2. "Dissecting the Cycle: a methodological investigation”, (with AR Pagan) Journal of Monetary Economics, (49)2, pp365-381.
  3. “A Comparison of Two Business Cycle Dating Methods”, (with AR Pagan) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 27, No 9,  2003, pp. 681-1690.
  4. “Rejoinder to James Hamilton”, (with AR Pagan) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 27, No 9, 2003, pp. 1695-1698.

Under review at journals

  1. "Synchronization of cycles" ( with Adrian Pagan), Journal of Econometrics, (revise and resubmit).
  2. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research", Journal of Applied Econometrics, (submitted)
  3. “Notes on neglected seasonality in the Australian national accounts”, The Australian Economic Review, (revise and resubmit)

Working papers   

  1. "The Australian Business Cycle: A New View", presented at the 2002 TOP conference, The University of Melbourne.
  2. “Some Econometric Problems Arising From Regressions With Constructed State Variables”, (with AR Pagan).
  3. "Extracting, Analysing and Using Cyclical Information", Presented at CEPR/Banca d’Italia conference on Monitoring the European Business Cycle, July 2001.
  4. "Evaluation of the Australian Industry Group/PriceWaterhouseCoopers-Performance of Manufacturing Index", April 2001, (Joint with Lei Lei Song and Duy Tien Tran)

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